“I am confident that we can take a more pragmatic, proportionate and realistic approach to reaching net zero, which eases the burden on workers,” British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said on September 20.Credit: Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty
On September 20, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak made a shock announcement that has repercussions around the world. The week when scientists and diplomats from around the world were reaffirm its commitment to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goalshe announcement that the UK will delay its decarbonisation plans.
The ban on the sale of new gasoline and diesel cars will be postponed from 2030 to 2035. The planned phase-out in 2030 of new gas boilers for heating homes must be postponed accordingly. Earlier this year, and following widespread criticism, the government announced a new round of exploration licenses for oil and gas companies. And a project to increase offshore wind power capacity is on hold.
There was good news. Sunak reconfirmed on September 20 that the UK would contribute £1.62 billion (US$2 billion) to the latest replenishment of the Green Climate Fund for adaptation and mitigation in countries low or middle income. In addition, he added, £150 million ($184 million) will be distributed among 50 scientists and engineers to develop “groundbreaking green technologies.”
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But the decision to slow down the UK’s decarbonisation is wrong. It is not clear which scientists or companies were consulted, and many British researchers in fields ranging from climate and energy policy to engineering and hydrology, made their concerns public. The overarching problem, as summarized by Christopher Knibb, director of policy at the Institution of Engineering and Technology in Stevenage, UK, is that Sunak sees the 2030 deadlines as a burden rather than an opportunity. Many companies of all sizes are well on their way to transforming their energy sources, supply chains and operations, and are dismayed by this week’s developments. The UK’s Royal Academy of Engineering was tasked with administering the breakthrough technologies fund, but its president, Jim McDonald, made no secret of his disappointment when he said: “The government will have to ensure political stability which transcends electoral cycles and administrations if business is prosperous. plan with confidence and play your role fully.
Leaders are expected to demonstrate ambition and vision. The lectern from which Sunak spoke was adorned with the inscription: “Long-term decisions for a better future.” But it is obvious that short-term thinking risks dividing people and will certainly divide political parties. There will be no sunny highlands in the country’s future, just a darker tomorrow.
Sunak’s speech was essentially based on two arguments: climate policies harm citizens and it is necessary to go slowly to maintain public confidence in mitigating environmental change. In a cost of living crisis, he argued, people should not be asked to buy electric vehicles or switch from gas to electric heating. Sunak also said, without citing evidence, that slower decarbonization would still allow the country to reach net zero emissions by 2050, a target enshrined in British law. The government’s own expert advisers disagree.
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The speech also showed a lack of awareness of research into the already harmful effects of releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere on the planet and vulnerable people. It is the poorest populations, both in the UK and globally, who are among the most vulnerable to climate-related extreme weather events, because they lack the resources to protect themselves from economic and other shocks (X. Sheng and others. Approximately. Sci. Pollute. Res. 30, 77771-77783; 2023).
Hydrologist Hannah Cloke of the University of Reading, UK, was right when she told the Science Media Center in London: “The effects of runaway climate change are understood by the whole world and accepted by the British Government” through the Intergovernmental Council. Climate Change Expert Group.
Sunak’s speech could have been written 30 years ago: it repeated decades-old arguments for stopping or delaying action to protect the environment. These were removed by the 2015 Paris climate agreement and it is simply wrong to reintroduce them now. When Sunak attends this year’s UN climate conference in Dubai, representatives from low- and middle-income countries could legitimately argue that they have a better case than the UK for slowing down decarbonisation, because they have more vulnerable people, with even lower incomes.
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Unfortunately, Sunak’s announcement also reintroduces politics into climate policy, effectively ending a carefully constructed, cross-sector, science-based consensus. In 2008, a Labor government enshrined climate commitments into law. This has been reinforced by two Conservative governments. Theresa May, then prime minister, decreed in 2019 that the United Kingdom would reach net zero emissions by 2050. The following year, her successor, Boris Johnson, oversaw legislation to phase out new gasoline engines and diesel.
There are many things the current government could do right now to improve the lives of the poorest people. It could require that those with the lowest incomes always pay the lowest energy prices; it could invest on a larger scale in home insulation to reduce bills and carbon footprint. A national education and training program could provide access to green jobs, particularly in the UK’s many deprived areas.
Carbon budgets and net zero targets are not a game, and the future of our planet is not an issue to be divisive over. When he took office, Sunak presented himself as a steady hand. It works within the framework of a consensus of research and expertise in economic policy. He recognized the need to restore British researchers to their important place within the Horizon Europe funding system. He talks to educators about how to encourage more young people to study mathematics at school. It is equally important to consult, not ignore, expert advice on climate and energy science and policy. It’s not too late to change course.
